Climate Change: Saline Water Leakage in Coastal Reservoirs: A Predictive Hazard Model and Adaptive Groundwater Management Framework

Abstract

Salt does not knock on the door before entering the well. It comes slowly, mixed with water that was tasty, and by the time one notices, the damage has gone deep into the ground. This paper addresses this silent kind of disaster: the intrusion of saltwater into coastal reservoirs, which is getting stronger every year due to rising sea levels and heavy pumping. We used the GALDIT method, a well-tested six-factor index, to develop a model predicting the fragility of coastal groundwater systems. The model combines groundwater type, reservoir discharge, sea level above sea level, distance from shore, impact of current leakage, and reservoir thickness into a single applicable hazard grade. A documented coastal reservoir of the Mediterranean Sea is a real-time field data case study derived from the Lapis River system of northeastern Greece, as well as published predictions of global sea level rise by 2100. The results show that this vulnerability is not evenly distributed along the coast; it is concentrated near the coast and increases rapidly where pumping is high and natural recharge is weak. The chloride levels measured in the ten monitoring wells varied widely, and the index had the highest readings with the highest risk prediction. In addition to problem mapping, this paper proposes a conducive management framework that connects indicator scores directly to field actions, including pumping limits, industrial feedstock, and freshwater injection barriers. The frame is designed to keep up with weather data updates, rather than having a single shot frozen in time. We argue that coastal water planning needs exactly the same kind of living and responsive tools if fragile coastal areas are to maintain access to fresh water in the coming decades.